The Welsh Basic Income Evaluation

Overview

Basic income schemes have been trialled in a number of ways around the world in recent years, but this scheme is the most generous to date. The evaluation will increase our understanding of the impact and mechanisms of basic income provision and will explore a range of health and social impacts of the scheme alongside the impact on income, work and study.

The Welsh Government have commissioned a four-year evaluation of the pilot. The evaluation started in November 2022 and is due to end in November 2026. Professor Sally Holland and David Westlake at the CASCADE research centre in Cardiff University are leading the evaluation, alongside colleagues at Kings College London, University of Oxford, University of York, Northumbria University, and the Centre for Homelessness Impact. The evaluation aims to:

• Test whether the Welsh Basic Income Pilot has an impact on intended outcomes and estimate how much of an effect it has.
• Understand how and why the Welsh Basic Income Pilot works, for whom and under which circumstances.
• Identify, measure and value the costs and outcomes of the Welsh Basic Income Pilot to calculate its cost effectiveness.

The evaluation has five work packages:

Work package	Overview	Lead
(1)   Co-production	The team will regularly consult with a group of care experienced young people to inform the design and methods of the evaluation, interpret the findings, and develop recommendations.	Professor Sally Holland at Cardiff University.
(2)   Theory enhancement	A theory will be developed to describe how, why, and for whom the pilot works. The theory will be based on the existing literature and data collected in work packages 3-5.	David Westlake at Cardiff University.
(3)   Impact evaluation	This will evaluate the impact of the pilot on the intended outcomes. Survey and administrative data will be used to compare outcomes for young people who are eligible for the pilot with young people who turn 18 the following year.	Professor Michael Sanders at Kings College London.
(4)   Implementation and process evaluation	This will explore how the pilot has been implemented, experienced, and integrated into other forms of support for care leavers in Wales. It will draw on interviews and observations with young people and their nominated adult supporters, focus groups with professionals, and administrative data.	David Westlake and Dr Louise Roberts at Cardiff University.
(5)   Economic evaluation	This will identify, measure, and value the costs and outcomes of the pilot. It will use survey and administrative data.	Dr Elizabeth-Ann Schroeder at the University of Oxford.

For more details, please see our open access protocol paper:

Activities and Methods

This is a large and complex evaluation. Our overall design is a quasi-experimental impact and value-for-money evaluation, with a multi-method implementation and process evaluation. The evaluation uses a suite of quasi-experimental approaches, which will enable triangulation between multiple data sources. Through this we aim to provide a robust account of the difference Basic Income makes to care leavers in Wales.

Our evaluation is structured around the following five work packages:

1. Co-production
2. Theory enhancement
3. Impact evaluation and data linkage framework development
4. Implementation and process evaluation
5. Economic evaluation

Findings

The findings from the evaluation are reported annually by Welsh Government. The first annual report was published in February 2024, and the second in March 2025. 

Read our first report on the Welsh Government website:

Our most recent annual report has also now been published and can be viewed on the Welsh Government website:

See our Mid-Point Report on the Welsh Government website:

This Project is ongoing.